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The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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Post-Thanksgiving NFL Team Performance
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John Fox's Carolina teams have been one of the most reliable bets down the stretch. (AP)
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For the NFL, the true push for the playoffs typically begins after Thanksgiving each year. As with almost every other scenario analyzed, some teams perform better down the stretch, while other flounder. Some do better in certain late season favorite/underdog or home/road dichotomies. There are still other teams whose late season success hinges on whether or not they are still in the playoff hunt. I’m here to uncover all of this, as I study the recent history of the NFL, post-Thanksgiving weekend.
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Oakland at San Diego – Still a Betting Opportunity
NFL - The Chargers have dropped four games in the last 24 seconds by a combined seven points and are probably better than their 4-8 record shows. With that said this is nowhere near the same team that played for the AFC title a year ago and came into 2008 as a heavy favorite to repeat as champion of a lackluster West division. With December upon us, San Diego’s (4-8, 5-7 ATS) margin for error is gone. It can’t afford to lose another game if it’s going to be lucky enough to overtake Denver for first place and return to the playoffs.
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Looking Ahead in Rearview Mirror in the NFL
NFL - Go ahead, I dare you to guess what the Denver Broncos season ending record will be, let alone how they will perform over the next four weeks against the spread. The 2008 Broncos seem to be a mix of Britney, Lindsey, and Paris all wrapped into one. A closer look at the team is more confounding than Mike Shanahan having a darkly tanned face in December living in Rocky Mountain country. Denver is in first place in the AFC West, which is akin to Arizona being in the top spot in the other West division.
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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets.com
| NFL | MINNESOTA at DETROIT
Play On - Home underdogs or pick (DETROIT) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
29-8 over the last 10 seasons. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.2 units )
| NFL | DALLAS at PITTSBURGH
Play On - Road teams vs. the money line (DALLAS) after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points
71-37 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.7% | 0.0 units )
4-8 this year. ( 33.3% | 0.0 units )
| NFL | HOUSTON at GREEN BAY
Play Against - Road underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (HOUSTON) after beating the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games
29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units ) |
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