NASCAR heads back west this week for the final running of the new traditional Labor Day weekend event at California Speedway. Confused? Well, the Pepsi 500, scheduled for Sunday evening, is in its fifth year of existence since replacing the Southern 500 at Darlington as the popular holiday weekend race following the 2003 season. However, poor attendance here has caused NASCAR to shift the holiday race to Atlanta next season. Fontana will then host a Chase event in October from now on. All of that aside, the real important focus of this week’s event will be the points standings, where 10 drivers between 6th & 15th positions will continue to be narrowed down to seven for the 2008 Chase, which starts in just two short weeks!

Currently, David Ragan, Kasey Kahne, and Ryan Newman find themselves on the outside of the Chase window looking in. Kahne’s prospects took a big hit last week when he was involved in a crash at Bristol and finished 40th. He is 56-points behind 12th place Clint Bowyer after spending most of the season thus far comfortably in the Top 12. Incidentally, Ragan is 12-points back, and Newman is 181. Frankly, Newman’s chances are very small even if he were to win the next two races. Those on the sunny side of the rainbow who’ve yet to clinch include (in order) Tony Stewart, Greg Biffle, Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, and Bowyer.

The biggest problem for Newman is that most of the drivers ahead of him boast better California numbers. He has scored just two Top 5’s and an average finish of 18.6 in 11 prior Cali starts. Meanwhile, Kahne (13.7 avg., win) and Ragan (14.0 avg.) are both ranked in the Top 11 active drivers in average finish. That list is topped by Jimmie Johnson (6.4) and Carl Edwards (6.8). Not surprisingly, those two are the most recent winners here, with Edwards accomplishing the feat in February, and Johnson wining this same race a year ago. Edwards is also red-hot overall, having won the last two series events to reach five wins for the season. Other strong drivers at California statistically include Kenseth (9.9 avg., two wins) and Jeff Gordon (11.3 avg., series high three wins).

There have been 16 previous NASCAR cup series events at the 2 mile oval in Fontana, CA. and only California natives Gordon, and Johnson, plus Wisconsin-ite Matt Kenseth have won more than once here. The 14-degree banking here is minimal, and the turns are big & sweeping, so the track essentially acts as a hybrid of a Superspeedway and Flat Track. The racing is normally clean and fast, and often the winner can be decided on pit row, either by strategy or by stop times. Long green flag runs are common, so if a team misses on a setup in any particular run, they can fall back quickly. Overall, the Roush Racing team has had the best feel apparently as they’ve won half of the last ten events. If that sounds familiar, it must be because the recipe to winning at California is similar to that at Michigan.

According to this week’s odds at Sportsbook.com, the contender list is not very deep, with just four drivers listed at 8-1 or better to take home the checkered flag. Considering that Kyle Busch and Edwards have won six of the last seven races on the circuit, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that they are the favorites at 4-1. Johnson, the only other driver to win during that span, at Indy, is 5-1, followed by Kenseth are 8-1. Therefore, if you have a decent feel for an underdog, this is a good time to play him. Among those to consider might be Stewart (10-1), who boasts five Top 10’s in the last seven races at California Speedway. Stewart, however, has never won at the track in 14 career starts however. Also, Kahne (15-1) is desperate for a top finish and has enjoyed wins both here and at Michigan. Kevin Harvick (30-1) is an attractive alternative racing in his home state too, as he has driven well of late. Finally, Clint Bowyer, at 50-1, might be worth a shot simply because of his outlandish odds and need for a strong run. Those on the opposite side of the stats spectrum include Dale Earnhardt, Jr., who owns a series high 4 DNF’s plus a 21.4 average finish here, and Juan Montoya (26.3 avg).

The pressure is really on this week and next for those drivers still on the bubble of making the Chase. It figures to be a stress-filled weekend for those guys. The action starts with qualifying at 6:40 PM ET on Friday. Kyle Busch set the track record with a qualifying lap of 188.425 mph in 2005, and brother Kurt was on the pole in this race a year ago, his second straight top qualifying effort in the Labor Day weekend tradition. Still, as evidence of how important green flag running is compared to qualifying, only six of the 16 previous winners here have started in the Top 5, so keep an eye closely on the practice and happy hour speeds on Saturday and don’t overvalue starting spot. Sunday’s green flag is scheduled to drop around 8:15 PM ET to wrap up the weekend. ESPN has the coverage. As always, the StatFox NASCAR FoxSheet, Driver Pages, and Matchup Analyzer are ready to help you in all your race wagering…